Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.455524 0.527142 0.605525 0.697567 0.802577 0.918533 1.056164
2025-07-06 0.326654 0.421341 0.535643 0.683266 0.868314 1.092004 1.382261
2025-07-13 0.266405 0.372022 0.508926 0.698260 0.952019 1.278909 1.730230
2025-07-20 0.233274 0.347574 0.504553 0.733950 1.058282 1.497672 2.134657
2025-07-27 0.204999 0.323368 0.494374 0.756541 1.144709 1.693798 2.523634
2025-08-03 0.179062 0.297572 0.476856 0.763898 1.206905 1.858243 2.879724
2025-08-10 0.155910 0.272007 0.455323 0.760821 1.250633 1.996653 3.206677
2025-08-17 0.135596 0.247710 0.432024 0.750954 1.280818 2.114718 3.510040
2025-08-24 0.119004 0.227090 0.411684 0.742584 1.310925 2.233072 3.821225
2025-08-31 0.102449 0.204044 0.384134 0.718252 1.310899 2.301172 4.054586
2025-09-07 0.097685 0.201860 0.392525 0.756811 1.420935 2.558652 4.620887
2025-09-14 0.085412 0.183610 0.369581 0.736191 1.424257 2.634429 4.882760
2025-09-21 0.074535 0.166821 0.347775 0.715979 1.427593 2.712724 5.160024
2025-09-28 0.065389 0.152294 0.328623 0.698731 1.434779 2.798648 5.458797
2025-10-05 0.060699 0.146547 0.326176 0.713857 1.504803 3.004318 5.991819
2025-10-12 0.058450 0.145846 0.333928 0.750277 1.619632 3.302261 6.719424
2025-10-19 0.055185 0.142340 0.335276 0.773337 1.709408 3.558809 7.386674
2025-10-26 0.050984 0.136011 0.329692 0.780846 1.767567 3.757658 7.955733
2025-11-02 0.046455 0.128198 0.319809 0.777706 1.802619 3.912498 8.447795
2025-11-09 0.041951 0.119770 0.307481 0.767634 1.821539 4.035522 8.883846
2025-11-16 0.038031 0.112256 0.296382 0.759090 1.842764 4.164400 9.340544
2025-11-23 0.033614 0.102720 0.279203 0.734251 1.824802 4.208807 9.622799
2025-11-30 0.033027 0.103682 0.288232 0.773613 1.957661 4.586488 10.641309